O4C – West Sectionals – Day 2 Preview

With the first day and the first half of round robin completed some teams are waking up to a new reality. As of right now each and every team is in real contention for a bid to Ontario Championships (O4UC). Read on to find out what’s changed since yesterday morning, who moved up, who’s in trouble, and what to expect on Day 2.

If you would like some context, read the tournament preview here.

Seeding at the start of the tournament:

  1. Tune Squad
  2. Swift
  3. My Nemesis
  4. Puffins
  5. Ray’s Balls
  6. Perturbed Pachyderms
  7. 3+9

Seed may also be displayed in brackets following a team: Ray’s Balls (5).

Two of the three bids out of the West section are, in my mind, locked up. Tune Squad (1) has been clinical on offense and their defense has stifled most teams. They continue to be the pick to finish first and take the first bid to O4UC.

Swift was dealt a blow on Friday evening when Dan Balzerson (TC, Crash) sprained his ankle during league play (open field, non-contact). However, given the depth and chemistry Swift has easily adapted and rolled through their games. They are still on track to meet Tune Squad in the finals, and capture the second bid, but I expect a similar result to their pool play game where Tune Squad won 15-9. The result may be more lopsided as Tune Squad will use the opportunity to prep themselves for the tougher games at O4UC.

This brings us to the third bid and final bid. Previously I had predicted a My Nemesis (3) vs Perturbed Pachyderms (6) game to go with My Nemesis coming out on top. However, My Nemesis has proven to be their own worst enemy with losses to the lower seeded Perturbed Pachyderms, 8-14, as well as Ray’s Balls (5), 12-19. These results along with uncertain play leaves them vulnerable to 3+9 (7).

Puffins (4) are now the slight favorites for the 3rd bid with their only challenge coming from Ray’s Balls (5). Both of the teams met on Saturday with Puffins taking a small early lead and maintaining it to a 16-13 win. There is plenty of room for improvement with both teams having spells of turnovers on high percentage throws along with overthrowing the small endzones. Expect Puffins to finish 3rd after the round robin reseed.

Ray’s Balls is expected to finish 4th after the round robin with games vs Swift and Tune Squad on Sunday. They will likely face Perturbed Pachyderms (6), 15-11 in pool play, or 3+9 (7), 15 9 in pool play, for the first round of the elimination bracket. With a rest before this round they have an advantage for both the first game and then the game to go. Should they face Puffins in the last game they can pull out a win by tightening up their game. Mentally, they should have the edge knowing they have played one less game today and that they were win a two point differential in the pool play game.

Perturbed Pachyderms (6) still have a chance to spoil the party for Puffins in pool play along with Ray’s Balls in the elimination round. They have had reasonably close games to be within striking distance of both teams but they themselves are vulnerable. Their last game in round robin is against 3+9 who will be looking to capture the 6 seed spot. Should 3+9 be unsuccessful against My Nemesis then this last game is their final opportunity. The elimination rounds will be an uphill battle but clean play will close the gap with their matchups.

Finally, 3+9 (7) is a welcome surprise that is proving to be a much tougher matchup for the more established teams. They are now favored to move out of the 7 seed into the 5 or 6 seed position. Their most important game of Sunday, against My Nemesis, will be their best opportunity to move into 6th seed. They also have a tougher matchup against Perturbed Pachyderms (6) but a win would propel them into an even higher seed.

Sunday is shaping up to be a very exciting finals days for the game to go. I am calling 3+9 the dark horse with the ability to upset both Perturbed Pachyderm and My Nemesis.

Final results prediction (incoming seed):

  1. Tune Squad (1)
  2. Swift (2)
  3. Puffins (4)
  4. Ray’s Balls (5)
  5. Perturbed Pachyderms (6) – win vs 3+9 in pool play
  6. 3+9 (7) – win vs My Nemesis in pool play
  7. My Nemesis (3)

Alternate prediction (incoming seed):

  1. Tune Squad (1)
  2. Swift (2)
  3. Ray’s Balls (3) – advantage due to one less game played today
  4. Puffins (4)
  5. 3+9 (7) – win vs Perturbed Pachyderms in pool play
  6. Perturbed Pachyderms (6)
  7. My Nemesis (3)

Games to watch:

  1. Pool play:
    1. First round: Ray’s Balls vs Swift – last pool play game for Swift before finals
    2. Second round: My Nemesis (3) vs 3+9 (7) – A must win game for both teams, edge to 3+9
    3. 3+9 (7) vs Perturbed Pachyderms (6)
  2. Elimination round:
    1. D vs E – the 4 vs 5 seeds after the re-seed
    2. Game to go – expect a rematch between Puffins (4) and Ray’s Balls (5)

Also published on Medium.

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