The Open Situation

In previous posts I’ve spent a bit of time focused on Ontario Mixed Ultimate.  With Regionals coming up in a few weeks it’s a good time to start looking at other divisions starting with Open.

Furious George won CUC 2012 in Victoria with a short roster.  With CUC in Vancouver they’ve decided to attend again and look to win three years in a row.  Their win over GOAT in Ottawa, while close, was not nearly as exciting as their win over General Strike in 2012.  This year looks to be a lock for them with relatively few contenders to face them.  Let’s take a look at who’s registered by region at this time:

Alberta

  • Phantoms
  • The Ghosts

 

British Columbia

  • Blackfish
  • Furious George
  • Refinery
  • Richie and Friends
  • Sofa Kings

 

Ontario

  • Firebird
  • Goose
  • Grand Trunk
  • Maverick
  • Phoenix
  • ROY
  • Too Bad

 

Prairies

  • Critical Mass
  • General Strike

 

Québec

  • Agony
  • DEMON
  • Magma
  • Magma 2
  • Mephisto
  • Projet P
  • Quake
  • Rage

 

Great interest from Québec and Ontario as always and with a big contingent wanting to head to CUC from BC as well.  Before speaking about projections for CUC let’s take a look at bid allocation before and after wildcard.

  • Alberta – 1
  • Atlantic – 2
  • BC – 4
  • Ontario – 3
  • Prairies – 2
  • Québec – 1
  • Size/Wildcards – 3

 

Since Atlantic is not sending any teams there are 5 wildcard spots available and one shall be allocated to each remaining region resulting in the following allocation:

  • Alberta – 2
  • BC – 5
  • Ontario – 4
  • Prairies – 3
  • Québec – 2

 

Since Prairies only has two teams one additional spot then goes on to either Ontario or Québec depending upon who gets the first pick.  The first pick is determined by number of teams registered and paid:  Both appear to be tied at 7 each in which case it comes down to number of paid members.  If it turns out that Projet P has paid then Québec will get 3 bids, if not:  2 bids and Ontario jumps up to 5.  In any case it looks like Regionals, aside from needing to seed, for Alberta, BC, and Prairies (Manitoba, Winnipeg) will not knock out any teams from contention.

For Ontario I put forward the following seeding ahead of Regionals:

  1. Phoenix
  2. Grand Trunk
  3. Too Bad
  4. Maverick
  5. Goose
  6. Firebird
  7. ROY

 

The above has been the traditional ranking in recent memory with Maverick moving down due to a weaker year.  GT has a good shot at first out of the province and if there’s a fifth spot to CUC then Goose, Firebird, and ROY will be in the mix.

We’ll get a better picture of Québec after Jazz Fest next weekend but with two, maybe three, bids available it should look like:

  1. Mephisto
  2. DEMON
  3. Quake (they may be higher than DEMON)
  4. Magma
  5. Agony
  6. Magma 2
  7. Rage

 

The above is a complete guess aside from Mephisto and I’ll work on improving the projection.  Projet P is not listed as it’s unknown if they’re planning on going or not.  Let’s assume Québec gets the third bid to CUC which shall result in the following teams heading to CUC:

  • Phantoms
  • The Ghosts
  • Blackfish
  • Furious George
  • Refinery
  • Richie and Friends
  • Sofa Kings
  • Grand Trunk
  • Phoenix
  • Too Bad
  • Maverick
  • Critical Mass
  • General Strike
  • DEMON
  • Quake
  • Mephisto

 

Of the above teams the top three shall receive a bid to WUCC 2014 in Lecco.  The following teams are most likely to have a good chance at those bids:

  • Furious George
  • General Strike
  • Mephisto
  • Phoenix
  • Grand Trunk
  • The Ghosts

 

In reality there may be some upsets along the way to knock one or more of these teams out.  Even if one of these teams is knocked out the competitors will then need to win their next game.  In order to head to Worlds you’ll need be in the top 8 on Saturday, win the first game of the day, and then win one of the next two games.  It’s a tall order that only the six teams above have a good chance at.  Even if you don’t get a bid it’s important that your teams play hard so that there are bids available for your region next year.  It’s a pity that Québec might be the largest region yet started with the fewest bids and should be an indication that if your region sends weak teams it will be much tougher in subsequent years.

More to come in the next few weeks.  I hope this early snapshot provides teams with a decent idea of what we can expect in August but also that the lead up is fraught with uncertainty for those in Ontario and Québec.

5 thoughts on “The Open Situation

  1. Hey Tushar,

    How do you justify seeding ROY below Firebird, a team we beat at TUF as well as 3 times last year?

    • There shall be Phoenix cuts that shall be on Firebird. It’s a close call regardless and I’d prefer to see you prove me wrong :)

  2. Pingback: IAmUltimate » Pressure

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